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Traffic Safety Modelling:

A Story of Quasi-Monopolistic Competition, Bus Trips and Detergents

30 NOV 2007 (FRI) | 19:00-20:00

Room 211, Hui Oi Chow Science Building, The University of Hong Kong.



Prof Mike Maher Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds University

Mike Maher is Professor of the Mathematical Analysis of Transport Systems at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds, UK. His research is in the mathematical and statistical modelling of transport problems, especially in the areas of network modelling, optimisation and traffic safety modelling. Having graduated with a BA and PhD from St. John’s College, Cambridge University, he held posts in the Institute for Transport Studies at Leeds University, and then the Department of Probability & Statistics at Sheffield University, before joining the Transport Research Laboratory in 1987. In 1994, he moved to the Transport Research Institute at Napier University, Edinburgh. He retired from Napier in early 2007 and took up his current part-time post at Leeds University. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematics & its Applications, a Chartered Statistician, is the author of over 100 papers, and is on the Editorial Advisory Board for the international journal Transportation Research B.



The seminar will start by looking at the status and current trends in UK road safety research, before going on to discuss the key role of exposure measures in making meaningful and informative comparisons from road accident data. It will then look at predictive accident models: models that tell us how many accidents can be expected at a site, given the flows passing through the site and the geometric design of the site. It will cover how such models are fitted, and how accurate they are, as well as looking at the uses they have in junction design, blackspot identification and the evaluation of remedial treatments. Finally, the seminar will look at before and after accident studies, the problem of regression to mean that can often arise in such studies, and how it can either be avoided or allowed for. To illustrate this, results from two important UK studies into the effectiveness of speed cameras will be described.


Organizers:Master of Arts in Transport Policy and Planning, HKU (MATPP)

All are Welcome!!


20071130 Seminar Poster

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